"國會預算局預估美國經濟衰退情形"

國會預算局表示由於削減開支和增加課稅，美國正面臨「財政懸崖」危機。

國會預算局提出警告，若懸置減支和增稅的方案，可能會導致美國明年經濟衰退。國會預算局呼籲政治家若現在不採取行動，明年就得面臨跌落「財政懸崖」的後果。數據顯示明年上半年的經濟成長將會先跌落2.9%，下半年上升一點，最後以全年下降0.5%作收。

根據國會預算局的報告，今年美國國內失業率雖可能會維持在8%以上，經濟復甦還是會一直持續到年底。然而，明年預計會有更糟的景況。報告指出：「財政緊縮將會導致2013年經濟衰退。2012第四季到2013年第四季期間的實際國內生產毛額將會跌落0.5%，而失業率會增加9%左右。」

國會預算局啟用「財政替代方案」，此方案能解決一些即將面臨的經濟危機。在這個提案運作之下，失業率將持平，經濟則預計能成長至1.7%。

(Business) Congressional Budget Office Predicts US Recession

The office says the nation is approaching a fiscal cliff due to spending cuts and tax increases.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that impending spending cuts and tax hikes could cause the US economy to fall into recession next year. The office told politicians to act now to prevent the country falling off a fiscal cliff or face the consequences next year. Its figures suggest that growth will fall by 2.9% in the first six months of the year before picking up in the second half to finish the year 0.5% down.

The CBO report claimed that the US recovery will continue until the end of the year, although unemployment will likely remain above 8%. A gloomier scenario is expected for next year, though. Fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013, and the unemployment rate rising to about 9%, the report read.

The CBO set out an alternative fiscal scenario which would save the economy from some of the upcoming challenges. Under its proposals, the economy would grow a projected 1.7%, with unemployment remaining unchanged at a little over 8%.

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