伊朗衝突(戰爭)對世局的影響(46)

​（巫本添 9/27/2026 星期日寫於紐約市）

伊朗衝突(戰爭)對世局的影響(46)

​伊朗只有兩個選擇：存或滅
中共中國表面和美國互利共存

​從 9/21 星期一到今天 9/27 星期日，這 7 天來，世界局勢很明顯地是跟著美國的伊朗政策在轉：

​第一，

​美國對伊朗的經濟制裁（Economic Sanctions）以及對霍爾木茲（Hormuz）海峽的封鎖，效果明顯而快速。

​通貨膨脹：
伊朗年度通貨膨脹（Inflation）超過約 84% 至 88%。食物上漲 128%，例如菜油、雞蛋以及雞肉上漲 170% 至 380%。（數據根據 The Guardian 和 Trading Economics 的報導）

​幣值崩潰：
伊朗的幣值已達 220 萬 Rials 兌換 1 美元，基本上完全變成廢紙，幣值全盤崩潰（Currency Collapse）。國際外匯交易市場完全停擺，伊朗毫無外匯收入。（數據根據 Al Jazeera 及 India TV News English 的報導）

​戰爭代價：
伊朗和美國的戰爭，初步估計伊朗損失 2,700 億美元（$270 billion）。（根據美國財政部的資訊）

​GDP：
伊朗的國內生產總值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）成長率為負數。以年度計算，伊朗在第一季下降了 10.1%（以波斯年度計算，今年 2026 年第一季為 3/21 至 6/20）。在負數中持續下降，原因是戰爭以及美國的經濟制裁（Sanctions）。石油（Oil）與天然氣（Gas）估計同一季生產下降 26.4%。因為生產下降加上禁運（Blockade），所有經濟指數全面下跌。根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的估計，2026 年到年底，所有經濟指數仍將繼續下跌。（以上 GDP 數據根據 Firstpost、ProtoThema English 及 News18 的報導）

​美國對伊朗霍爾木茲海峽的海上封鎖（Naval Blockade）卡住了伊朗的石油輸出，但是波斯灣友邦的石油輸出，已經恢復到伊朗戰爭開始前的 85%。

​伊朗的痛苦指數（Misery Index）高達 96%，這是將通貨膨脹率與失業率相加的數據。若按伊朗不同地區來衡量，有些地區甚至超過 120%。（此數據根據 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 的報導）

​（按：痛苦指數（Misery Index）是一種用來衡量一般民眾感受到之經濟不愉快程度的總體經濟指標，由美國經濟學家亞瑟·奧肯（Arthur Okun）於 1970 年代提出。其計算方式是將一國的通貨膨脹率百分比與失業率百分比直接相加；數字越高，代表民眾面臨的生活成本越高、工作機會越少、經濟壓力越大。後來經濟學家史蒂夫·漢克（Steve Hanke）在原有的指數基礎上，加入銀行貸款利率，並減去人均 GDP 成長率，衍生出「漢克痛苦指數」（Hanke’s Misery Index）。若套用此公式計算，伊朗的情況更為慘烈。）

​第二，

​9/25 星期五，中國國家主席習近平結束訪問白宮後，伊朗馬上提出和談新條件：內容與此前達成的和談協議相同，但增加了一個條件——開放霍爾木茲海峽 7 天。美國川普總統隨即予以拒絕。

​但是伊朗表示願意再談，川普總統也同意再談，並公開宣稱伊朗已經無路可走，只能與美國談判以求生路。

​2026 年 9 月 22 日（星期二），川普總統在第 81 屆聯合國大會（UNGA）「一般性辯論首日」登台演講，表達了以「美國優先」推動國際事務的主張，並針對伊朗核問題、俄烏衝突、委內瑞拉局勢以及人工智慧（AI）的發展發表看法。

川普總統更特別將 AI 的概念延伸為 SI（超級智慧, Super Intelligence），強調其超越傳統的人工（Artificial）範疇。

​關於伊朗核問題，川普總統一再強調伊朗絕不能擁有核子武器，因為伊朗會使用核武對付以色列，並毀滅波斯灣鄰國。（川普總統並未提及伊朗會以核武對付美國。）

​全世界都知道伊朗發展核武的技術、原料及建廠，全來自中共中國的指導。川普總統未特別點名中國，算是在 9/24 白宮會談前給習主席「言下留情」，以利會談順利進行。

​不過川普總統特別強調，伊朗完全誤判了美國的期中選舉，以為 11/3 之後川普總統就無法攻擊伊朗。川普總統強調，11/3 過後，他的總統任期仍有兩年多，並公開宣布在美國期中選舉過後，他將對伊朗做出最後決定。

​兩個選擇：
​選擇一： 伊朗完全接受美國的條件，以求光明未來。
​選擇二： 伊朗選擇滅亡，即政權的徹底覆滅。

​結論：

​9/24 星期四在白宮舉行的「川習會」，美國白宮事先公布了不納入會談的三大議題：No Chips, No Change on Taiwan, No Tariff Cut（ 不談晶片、不談台灣即維持台海現狀 Status Quo、不談關稅減免 ）。

​因此會談焦點集中於 AI (SI) 與伊朗兩大主題。川普總統在白宮網站同步宣告，中國國家主席習近平已答應不再向伊朗提供軍事支援，但習主席表示伊朗問題應和平解決。

​川普總統認為會談達成了重要目標。白宮於 9/27 星期日發布了兩人邊走邊談的照片，照片中川普總統與習主席神情相當嚴肅，川普總統一再用手勢強調重點，形同說教甚至帶有警告態勢；習主席則滿臉無奈。另有一張習主席彎腰面對川普總統的照片，令人印象深刻。

​習主席於 9/25 星期五離開美國後，中國國家副主席韓正前往聯合國大會（UNGA）演講，特別提及古巴問題，要求「相關方面」和平溝通並尊重古巴主權，卻未提及二戰後古巴實行共產政權、中俄兩國武裝古巴並威脅美國的歷史背景。

​目前美國川普總統正全力協助共和黨進行參眾兩院及州長期中選舉。本文作者認為油價下跌可能性大增，民生食品價格亦將隨之下降，共和黨在期中選舉未必會輸。此外，中共對美國期中選舉介入頗深，共產主義滲透並影響民主黨候選人，此一情勢與台灣 11/28 的選舉非常類似。

​川普總統表示共產主義必敗，且美國絕不會對共產黨的滲透坐視不管。

​（本文結束）

​附錄：
​Living Standards and Social Impact

​Collapsing Purchasing Power: Real per-capita incomes have plummeted, forcing households to cut back drastically on essentials. Demand for red meat and other proteins has dropped by half as families prioritize basic survival.
(Source: The Guardian, Al Jazeera, and Iran International)

​Energy and Resource Strain: The energy sector has suffered major contractions and disruptions, leading to fuel distribution challenges, closed stations, and calls for domestic conservation.
(Source: National Council of Resistance of Iran – NCRI, The Guardian, and Al Jazeera)

​Government and Security Response: State officials have tightened security oversight and cautioned against internal dissent, closely linking public economic anxiety with national security management.
(Source: National Council of Resistance of Iran – NCRI and The Guardian)

​Statement from Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

​”The cowards and traitors would love to say the United States is low on munitions. It’s not true. We have more munitions than we could ever possibly think of using, and are building them up now at levels we have never seen before. — President DONALD J. TRUMP”
(3.04k ReTruths | 12.6k Likes | 9/22/26, 7:14 AM)
​Trump defends U.S. interventions abroad ahead of ‘big decision’ on Iran: ‘Settling years of unfinished business’

​News Context & Quotes
​Oil prices extended gains after U.S.-Iran peace talks showed no signs of progress and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the Assembly on Wednesday that Iran has no plans to give up its nuclear program.

​Major General Yahya Safavi, a former chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and current advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Iran could expand the war to the Indian Ocean if the U.S. or Israel strikes Iran again.

​”Our armed forces are very intelligent in creating scenarios. Therefore, they have prepared their own plans for the worst-case scenarios so that if the Americans and the Zionists attack our national centers and interests again in any way, this time the war front will be wider,” Safavi said, according to a translation of comments he made in a video posted to Iranian-affiliated media outlet Fars.

​”Now that it has expanded from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, this front may be expanded in response to the next stage of a possible war (and extend to the Indian Ocean or elsewhere),” he said.

​Safavi also added that Iran is monitoring U.S. ship movements in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and in the Indian Ocean.

​”We have very good intelligence and we are completely monitoring the Americans from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean; we know where their ships, planes and troops are and we are fully prepared,” he said.
​”Of course, Iran is seeking peace and lasting security. Iran is not a warmonger; we are a peace-loving nation; but if they impose a war on us, we will stand up to the aggressors,” he continued.
​(End of section)

​Treasury Secretary Remarks
​Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that the Iranian regime was “cornered” as Washington “sequenced” military, economic and financial pressure.
​“They’re cornered animals,” Bessent said on Fox News’ “Special Report.”
​The Treasury secretary went on to say the results Washington was seeing were the product of what he called “sequencing.” “The world has never seen anything like this, and it’s because of sequencing.”

​“So we had six weeks of kinetic activity. We have the blockade, and now we have an effort never seen before in terms of constricting and cutting off the financial oxygen to them,” he said of the regime.
​“I don’t know whether it’s going to be a week, a month or two months, but they’re going to yell uncle.”
​“And the goal here can be one of three,” he said before outlining how the outcomes could include the regime turning on itself or an uprising by the Iranian people.

​“And then three, to get the Iranians to, if they want to make a deal, to stick to the deal.”
​“We gave the MoU a try on June 3, and then the Iranians, a few weeks later, began firing on ships in the Strait and being very aggressive. And this time, if there is a deal, I guarantee you they’re going to stick with it,” he said.

​(End of text)

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