策劃、編譯■李威撰美亞洲金融中心新加坡，人口稠密程度已超越香港，但政府1月29日表示，希望20年後人口能再多增加3成，確保經濟動力不會衰竭。政府在白皮書中指出，目前人口530萬的新加坡，希望在2030年達到650萬至690萬，方法是說服國人多生小孩，以及賦予公民身分給更多外國出生的專業人才。「許多亞洲城市快速現代化，正追趕上我們。」政府表示：「新加坡必須繼續發展，提升自己，維繫自身在全球都會網絡中扮演的重要角色，成為充滿活力的地區，創造就業與機會。」日子難過 民怨沸騰公布白皮書前幾天，長期執政的人民行動黨才因為高房價、自由派移民政策導致工作機會競爭激烈，在1月26日的國會議員補選中慘敗。通過嚴格、技術官僚治國的道路，人民行動黨在50年的執政中，讓新加坡脫離殖民時的邊陲之地，躍升成為主要商業中心。人民行動黨2011年遭遇歷年來最糟的一次選舉結果，政府開始讓公民有更多投入、增加社會性支出、限制低技術外籍勞工，並採取冷卻房價的措施。「這會帶來相當負面的感受，而我相信最後須再修訂，讓政治上變得可行。」新加坡管理大學政治系助理教授魏爾希表示：「愈來愈多人口由外國人組成，新加坡人的認同被稀釋，新加坡人感受到的是種背叛感。」▲不滿政府提出的人口白皮書，民眾16日在芳林公園的演說者之角發動抗議。（圖文／路透）移民在2000年占人口25％，目前增加至近4成，引發民眾的擔憂，包括生活成本、過度擁擠以及廉價勞動力造成的威脅等。儘管整體外國人數在增加，但政府的方針卻是讓移民政策變嚴。瑞士信貸銀行經濟學家邁可．王指出，數據顯示湧入情況會趨緩，從2006至2012年的1年超過10萬人，減少至1年4.5萬至5.5萬人。他說，加強對外籍工作者的限制，會抑制經濟成長，生產力較低的企業「隨整頓發揮作用而開始被淘汰」。靠貿易驅動經濟的新加坡，去年因電子產品需求減少而景氣不佳，加上新幣走強及雇用低薪外勞的規定變嚴格，因此雪上加霜。創造經濟機會白皮書指出，一直到2020年，如果新加坡生產力每年可提升2％至3％，再加上勞動力每年成長1％至2％，則經濟成長率可維持在平均3％至5％。但白皮書寫道，這段期間的平均經濟成長比較可能落在3％至4％之間。政府表示：「若我們沒有針對人口的挑戰作出足夠的應變，我們的危機就是社會不斷老齡化、失去生氣與活力，年輕人則前往他處找尋機會。」「但若我們吸納太多移民跟外勞，將削弱自己國家認同及歸屬感，離開自己的家門就覺得擁擠不堪。」白皮書表示，在發放公民身分給更多外國出生的專業人才同時，人口成長還牽涉到說服公民去提升自己的生育率，從每名婦女生育1.2名孩童增加至2.1名孩童的替代水準。星展銀行1月中旬的報告預估，建築、公共運輸、房地產及醫療衛生等部門，最有可能因為政府措施及人口成長而獲益。報告指出：「政策制定者玩的是追趕的遊戲，接下來幾年要增加住宅的供給。」除了調高印花稅，讓外國人購置房地產變得更加昂貴之外，政府也出售更多的土地，用於開發及加蓋公共住屋。其他辦法還包括提高在房屋輔助金的花費、補貼育兒費用、以及新生兒禮金，這些都是鼓勵成婚及成為父母的「Hey Baby」計畫的一部份。「新加坡會衰退嗎？我想新加坡人很快就會適應。」在美食廣場開餃子攤的林柏輝說：「沒別的選擇，我們公民沒有機會表達自己的想法，儘管每天早上的頭班火車總是人擠人。」（路透）Asian financial center Singapore, which is already more densely populated than rival Hong Kong, wants to raise its population by as much as 30 percent in the next two decades to ensure its economy remains dynamic, the government said on 19 January.The growth in the population to between 6.5 and 6.9 million by 2030 - from 5.3 million now - would involve persuading citizens to have more babies and handing out citizenship to more foreign-born professionals, the government said in a white paper（1）."Many Asian cities are modernising rapidly, and catching up on us," the government said. "Singapore must continue to develop and upgrade to remain a key node in the network of global cities, a vibrant place where jobs and opportunities are created."The publication of the white paper comes just days after Singapore's long-ruling People's Action Party (PAP) lost heavily in a by-election（2） amid growing public unhappiness about high property prices and competition for jobs which they blamed on the government's liberal immigration policies.With a stern, technocratic approach, the People's Action Party (PAP) has built up Singapore from a post-colonial outpost into a major business hub during its five decades in power.Since suffering its worst election showing in history in 2011, the government has sought more input from citizens and has ramped up social spending, restricted lower-skilled foreign workers and taken steps to cool property prices."This will be very negatively perceived and ultimately I believe have to be reworked to be politically viable," said Bridget Welsh, an assistant professor of political science at Singapore Management University. "Singaporeans feel a sense of betrayal with the larger share of the population comprised of foreigners and a dilution（3） of Singaporean identity（4）."Immigrants now make up nearly 40 percent of the population, up from about 25 percent in 2000, fuelling concern about the cost of living, overcrowding and threats from cheaper labour..While the overall number of foreigners is set to rise, the government projections point to an even tighter immigration policy, Credit Suisse economist Michael Wan said, with the data showing the inflow would have to slow to 45,000 to 55,000 a year, down from more than 100,000 a year between 2006 and 2012.The tighter curbs on foreign workers would dampen economic growth and less productive companies would "start to get weeded out as restructuring bites", he said.Singapore's trade-driven economy has been in the doldrums since last year, hurt by slowing demand for electronics that has been exacerbated by the strong Singapore dollar and measures making it harder for companies to hire low-wage foreign workers.Up to 2020, the white paper said, the economy will expand at an average rate of 3-5 percent if productivity can be raised by 2-3 percent each year and overall workforce growth stays at 1-2 percent. But economic growth is more likely to average 3-4 percent over the whole period, it said."If we do too little to address the demographic challenge, we risk becoming a steadily greying society, losing vitality and verve, with our young people leaving for opportunities elsewhere," the government said."But if we take in too many immigrants and foreign workers, we will weaken our national identity and sense of belonging, and feel crowded out of our own home."The growth in population will involve persuading citizens to raise their fertility rate from 1.2 babies per woman to closer to the replacement level of 2.1, while handing out citizenship to more foreign-born professionals, it said.Construction, public transport, property and healthcare are sectors most likely to benefit from the government's initiatives and a rising population, DBS Vickers said in a report in mid-January on its expectations for the white paper. "Policy makers are playing a catch up game to increase housing supply over the next few years," it said.Beyond raising stamp duties（5） to make it more expensive for foreigners to buy property, the government is selling more land for development and accelerating construction of public housing.Other measures include higher spending on housing grants, subsidised childcare and cash gifts for newborns as part of an enhanced marriage and parenthood package called "Hey Baby"."Will Singapore sink? I think Singaporeans will adapt quickly," Lim Boh Keow, who runs a dumpling stall in a food court. "There is no choice. We citizens don't get the chance to give our views. Even the first train every morning is packed."（Reuters）關鍵字詞1.white paper（n.）白皮書2.by-election（n.）補選3.dilution（n.）稀釋4.identity（n.）認同5.stamp duty（n.）印花稅