五星起「義」：結盟或重選 葛里洛動向備受矚目

策劃、編譯■李威撰義大利國會選舉落幕，五星運動成果斐然。這股新興的草根性政治力量，並非單純的民粹運動，在針砭民主、生態及經濟的同時，也提出自己的願景。崛起於經濟危機時刻的五星運動，其成功是否意味著另一種新型態政治的誕生？中間偏左的民主黨領導者貝沙尼發出最後通牒，要反體制的喜劇演員葛里洛表態，決定要共組新政府，或是重新再選一次。幾個月內，義大利可能會展開另一輪選舉。上週選舉結果，沒有任何政黨在議會取得有效多數；葛里洛的五星運動，則獲得廣大不滿民眾的支持。葛里洛領導的反體制五星運動發軔於2009年，在選戰中異軍突起，囊括26％的眾院席次，略多於中間偏左的民主黨。眾議院630席拿下108席；參議院315席拿下54席，葛里洛的動向牽動義大利未來政局。唯一不需要獲得葛里洛同意的籌組政府方式，就是由中間偏右的領導者貝魯斯柯尼與中間偏左的貝沙尼組成有違常理的同盟關係。不過，這將惹惱雙方眾多支持者，很可能在下次選舉中，讓更多人轉而支持五星運動。▲民主黨的貝沙尼在羅馬舉行政治集會，圖攝於2月22日。（圖文／路透）避免重選只剩一個選項：葛里洛表態支持中間偏左的民主黨。民主黨在眾院獲勝，但參院未獲足夠的支持。葛里洛反覆聲明，他的群眾運動（他拒絕稱它為黨），不會對任何體制內政黨組成的政府投下信任票，儘管可就個別法案表示支持。3月15日開始籌組政府的談判前，義大利這一懸而未決的不確定性，讓國際市場感到不安。這名來自熱那亞的喜劇演員，普遍被認為想要重新再選，欲掃除舊制度並衝高自己的選票。民調公司SWG副總裁普薩托表示：「盡快重選對他有利。」但他補充：「葛里洛不可能獲得讓他擺脫守舊勢力的8百萬票，其結果就是他仍要跟守舊派結盟。」盱衡新危機、負責做出重選決定的總統納波里塔諾已經表示，他希望避免再選。他說，由他解散國會，並不符憲法的規定，因為他的任期將在3月15日屆滿。在那之前，議會必須選出新總統，但儘管理論上選舉最早可提前至6月舉行，但拖長避免再選的談判，較有可能將大選之日推遲至秋天。不管如何，另一場選舉仍會產生同樣困局，除非先改變選舉法規。3月15日首次會期召開前，葛里洛4日先行與165名新科議員會面，討論策略問題。葛里洛分派克里米與隆巴迪擔任參院及眾院的領袖。不過，在報紙挖出隆巴迪先前在部落格張貼一篇某種程度上讚譽法西斯主義的文章後，引發了疑慮。隆巴迪23日張貼的文章寫道：「變質墮落以前，法西斯主義的意識型態吸收了社會主義，包含了一種全國共同體的特點，具有高度的國家感及捍衛家庭感。」儘管不清楚這番言論是否會產生嚴重傷害，但他們凸顯了在面對一個完全由不知名的新手所組成的黨派時存在的潛在危險。（路透）Italy could be inching closer towards another election within months after centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani issued an ultimatum（1） to anti-establishment （2） comic Beppe Grillo to support a new government or return to the polls.Last week's election, in which Grillo's 5-Star Movement won a huge protest vote, left no group with a working majority in parliament.After a spectacular rise since its formation in 2009, Grillo's anti-establishment 5-Star movement won a stunning 26 percent of lower house votes at the election, fractionally more than the center-left Democratic Party (PD). His 108 seats in the 630 seat Chamber of Deputies and 54 in the 315 seat Senate leave him holding the key to Italy's political future.The only government that can be formed without Grillo's consent would be a re-edition of the unnatural alliance between center-right leader Silvio Berlusconi and Pier Luigi Bersani on the center-left. Yet this would enrage （3） many supporters on both sides and make it likely that when Italians return to the polls, the 5-Star Movement performs even better.That would leave only one possibility to avoid elections - Grillo's backing for the centre-left, which won the lower house in the election but does not have enough support in the Senate.Grillo has repeatedly said his populist （4） movement, which he refuses to call a party, would not give a vote of confidence to any government of established parties, although it could support individual laws.The uncertainty in Italy, during a long limbo before talks to form a government begin after March 15, has unsettled international markets. The Genoese comic is widely believed to want to get back to the polls to wipe out the old order and boost his vote."It's in his interest to go back to the ballot box as soon as possible," said Maurizio Pessato, vice chairman of polling institute SWG. "Grillo can't win more than 8 million votes promising to get rid of the establishment and then immediately ally himself with the old guard," he added.President Giorgio Napolitano, who is responsible for navigating the new crisis, has said he wants to avoid snap elections. He says he is not constitutionally permitted to dissolve parliament because his mandate ends on May 15.Parliament must elect a new president before then, but although an election could theoretically be called as early as June, extended negotiations to try to avoid a vote are more likely to push the date back to the autumn. Another election could, in any case, produce the same deadlocked result unless electoral law is changed first.On Monday Grillo began meeting the 163 5-Star lawmakers to talk about strategy ahead of parliament's first session on March 15. He named Senate leader Crimi and lower house leader Roberta Lombardi on Monday but there was trouble after newspapers dug out a blog post she wrote, praising some aspects of fascism （5）.In the post she wrote on Jan. 23, Lombardi wrote of "the ideology of fascism, which before it degenerated, had a national community dimension that tapped into socialism, with a very high sense of the state and the protection of the family."Whether the remarks will cause any significant damage is unclear but they underline the potential dangers facing a party made up entirely of unknown novices.（Reuters）關鍵字詞1.ultimatum（n.）最後通牒2.anti-establishment（a.）反對舊制度舊風氣的3.enrage（v.）激怒4.populist（a.n.）民粹主義的（人）、訴諸民眾的（人）5.fascism（n.）法西斯主義