策劃、編譯■李威撰加薩哈瑪斯採取的行動，有意與以色列一決雌雄，因為哈瑪斯領袖熱衷於某種稱之為阿拉伯之春的東西，並搶著為了巴勒斯坦而赴死成為烈士。或者，從另一個觀點出發，心懷算計的以色列政客認為，進攻加薩易如反掌，此舉將可穩住明年1月的選舉。除此之外，也可重創巴勒斯坦在聯合國爭取國家地位的努力。以巴民眾當中，存在這兩種位於光譜兩端的論調，各自解釋了彼此為何在4年之後會朝著再度開戰的方向前進，從原先低度的、零星的衝突，演變成以色列兵臨城下的局面。毋須回到2千年前的衝突起源，當前嚴重的爆炸性危機，其根源可追溯至一連串跨越「紅線」的行為。特別是：10日朝以色列軍隊發射一枚俄式短號（Kornet）反坦克飛彈；接著，就在雙方似乎要達成默認的停火協議時，以色列卻在14日擊斃哈瑪斯軍事部門首長賈巴瑞；隨後，哈瑪斯15日朝特拉維夫發射長程火箭砲。這些大動作，破壞了脆弱的現狀。▲以色列對加薩進行空襲，當地一處政府辦公室被炸成瓦礫堆，圖攝於21日。（圖文／路透）以色列7年前撤出加薩走廊，不時會動用空軍武力，阻止哈瑪斯及其他伊斯蘭主義團體朝猶太國發射火箭砲。好戰分子否定以色列的生存權。在2008至2009年為期3週的行動中，以色列首次轟炸並短暫入侵加薩，希望一勞永逸的終止火箭砲發射行為。「鑄鉛行動」造成1,400名巴勒斯坦人及13名以色列人身亡。剛開始，加薩方面沒有動靜，隨後即展開報復。加薩發射飛彈，以色列回擊，時而瞄準無人的走私通道、時而鎖定發射砲彈人員。巴勒斯坦平民也跟著一起陪葬。雙方都談「遊戲規則」，而雙方現在都指控對方「跨越了紅線」。巴勒斯坦分析家同意，阿拉伯之春掃除向西方國家靠攏的獨裁政權以後，哈瑪斯便因為伊斯蘭主義者（特別是鄰國埃及，取得執政權的穆斯林兄弟會是哈瑪斯的精神嚮導）上台而占得上風。一名親近哈瑪斯、不願公布身分的消息來源表示：「當然，哈瑪斯因為周圍阿拉伯國家的變化而精神抖擻。許多人相信，以色列無法再孤立他們。」哈瑪斯被綁著走有別於那些被視作想與以色列追求和平的西方走狗；渴望正當性、冀望在巴勒斯坦民族運動中取得精神領導地位的哈瑪斯，卻要跟其他意圖動用暴力的薩拉菲武裝團體共享加薩。加薩的政治分析家哈比卜告訴《路透》：「為維繫自身在加薩的權威，哈瑪斯傾向於安定，結果卻導致其他派系不斷的敲詐威脅。」原想要腳踏兩條船的哈瑪斯，放棄了阻止這些團體朝以色列發射火箭的努力，甚至上個月加入他們，以凸顯自己沒有因為掌權而立場軟化。對以色列來說，獲得掌控的安全處境在政治上是可忍受的，但因為哈瑪斯再次開火，且挾持新武器，因而改變方針。以色列：旨在癱瘓發射行為以色列方面表示，「防衛柱行動」的目的不是重新占領加薩，或是徹底拔除伊斯蘭主義者。外交部發言人巴默表示，目的是摧毀長程火箭砲（譬如2009年從伊朗取得的Fajr 5），並且讓加薩「在很長的一段時間內」不再具有發射飛彈的能力。「不過，」野村國際公司的牛頓寫道，「距離以色列大選只剩2個月……歷史上，總理尼坦雅胡所屬的聯合黨，皆能因為選前的安全議題而得利。」雖然大多數以色列人支持行動，但死亡人數的增加會降低民意的支持。另一場表決也在逼近，西岸自治政府主席阿巴斯，意圖11月底在聯合國大會上，爭取提升巴勒斯坦人的外交地位。阿巴斯誓爭取巴勒斯坦地位以色列表示，在聯合國爭取對西岸、加薩走廊及東耶路撒冷的國家地位的承認是「外交恐怖主義」。以色列威脅要讓阿巴斯倒台，而阿巴斯因不支持哈瑪斯的武裝抵抗，也經常被哈瑪斯嘲弄。阿巴斯本人相信，加薩方面的行動是故意破壞他的提案，但他誓言要繼續努力。阿巴斯16日表示：「發生的每一件事，都是為了要阻撓我們前往聯合國的努力。」以色列專欄作家卓米表示，以色列應銘記，西岸的巴勒斯坦鄰居「仍承諾兩國方案。」「如果我們失去他們，那麼我們就只剩其他辦法了。」（路透）Gaza's Hamas movement wanted a showdown with Israel because its leaders are high on something called the Arab Spring and competing to become martyrs （1） to the Palestinian cause.Or, from another perspective, cynical Israeli politicians think a Gaza offensive will be a walkover that will assure re-election in January and at the same time provide a death-blow to Palestinian statehood moves at the United Nations.Those are two ends of a spectrum of theories among Israelis and Palestinians about what has propelled the two sides towards their second war in four years, escalating a low-level, slap-for-slap conflict to the brink of an Israeli invasion of Gaza.Without going back 2,000 years to the origins of the dispute, the roots of the latest high-explosive crisis can be traced in a series of "red lines" that have been crossed.Specifically: firing a Russian Kornet anti-tank missile on November 10 against Israeli soldiers; Israel's assassination of top Hamas commander Ahmed Al-Jaabari on November 14 after both sides appeared to have agreed to a tacit ceasefire deal, and then Hamas firing long-range rockets at Tel Aviv on November 15. These were big steps that wrecked a fragile status quo.Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip seven years ago and has regularly used its airpower （2） to deter Hamas and other Islamist groups from firing their rockets into the Jewish state. The militants do not recognise Israel's right to exist.In a bruising 2008-2009 three-week campaign, Israel first bombarded （3） then briefly invaded Gaza, hoping to put a halt to the rockets for once and all. Operation Cast Lead left 1,400 Palestinians and 13 Israelis dead.For a while, there was quiet, then the round of retaliations （4） resumed. Missiles were fired, Israel struck back, sometimes targetting empty smuggling tunnels, sometimes targetting rocket crews. Palestinian civilians （5） were also getting killed.Both sides speak of "the rules of the game". And now both sides accuse the other of "stepping over the red line".Palestinian analysts agree Hamas has the wind in its sails since the Arab Spring swept away pro-Western autocracies and replaced them with Islamists, especially in neighbouring Egypt where the ruling Muslim Brotherhood is their spiritual mentor."Of course, Hamas feels empowered by the change in the Arab countries around them and many believe Israel cannot isolate it any more," said a source close to Hamas who did not wish to be identified.But while Hamas craves the legitimacy it needs to assume moral leadership of the Palestinian national movement from those it considers Western poodles chasing peace with Israel, it shares Gaza with armed salafist groups intent on violence."Hamas has been under continuous blackmail from other factions since it has been more interested in calm in order to preserve its authority in Gaza," Hani Habib, a political analyst in Gaza told Reuters.Trying to face both ways, Hamas abandoned efforts to stop these groups firing rockets at Israel and last month joined in, to show it was not getting soft in the chair of office.For Israel, a security situation that had been contained and politically tolerable -- zero or very infrequent rocket attacks on the south by groups other than Hamas -- tilted with Hamas' decision to start shooting again, and with new weapons.Israel says the aim of Operation Pillar of Defence is not to re-occupy Gaza, or root out Islamists. It is to destroy long-range rockets such as the Fajr 5 from Iran that Hamas has acquired since 2009 and to disable Gaza's rocket capacity "for a very long time", said foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor."However," Alastair Newton at Nomura Global Markets says, "an Israeli general election is now just two months away ... Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has historically benefited from pre-election security concerns.."Although a vast majority of Israelis supports the operation, a high body count could reduce popular backing.Another vote is also looming -- one that the secular government of President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank wants to bring in the United Nations General Assembly by the end of November to give the Palestinians a diplomatic upgrade.Israel says this drive for U.N. recognition of a state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is "diplomatic terrorism". It has threatened to topple Abbas, who is regularly derided by Hamas for not supporting their armed resistance.Abbas himself is convinced the Gaza campaign is designed to sink his initiative, but has vowed to plough on. "Everything that is happening is in order to block our endeavours to reach the United Nations," he said on Friday.Israeli columnist Uri Dromi says Israel should remember that its Palestinian neighbours in the West Bank "are still committed to a two-state solution." "If we lose them, then we are left with the others only." （Reuters）關鍵字詞1.martyr（n.）烈士2.airpower（n.）空軍力量3.bombard（v.）轟炸4.retaliation（n.）報復5.civilian（n.）平民