糧安亮紅燈:推廣綠色子彈 目標餵飽90億人

立報/本報訊 2012.05.09 00:00
策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃在菲律賓飽受洪患的地方,有農民試著栽種一種耐澇的新品種稻米,就算完全浸泡水中超過2週仍可存活。在肯亞的奇貝拉貧民窟,都會貧窮家庭透過學習如何在家門前的小花園種植蔬菜,獲得飲食所需及收入。而在印度,在一項幫助邊緣化鄉村社群重新取回土地所有權的運動下,饑餓的情況已大幅減少。In flood-hit fields in the Philippines, farmers are testing a hardy new variety of rice that can survive completely submerged for more than two weeks. In Kenya's Kibera slum, poor urban families are turning around their diets and incomes just by learning to grow vegetables in sack gardens outside their doors. And in India, a push to help marginalised (1) rural communities gain title to their land is leading to a significant drop in hunger.上述只是這類農業創新改革活動的幾個例子。專家表示,未來幾十年內人口激增、城市擴張,加上氣候變遷帶來危害,人類若要自給自足,這些創新行動至關重要。These are just a few of the kinds of innovations and intitiatives that experts say will be critical if the world is to feed itself over coming decades as the population soars, cities sprawl and climate change takes its toll.專家表示,到2050年之前,人口預計會由目前的70億增加至90億,加上許多窮人變得更富有,因此產生飲食習慣的改變。因此,糧食產量必須至少要比目前增加70%。By 2050, the planet will need at least 70 percent more food than it does today to meet both an expected rise in population to 9 billion from 7 billion and changing appetites as many poor people grow richer, experts say.英國環境暨鄉村事務部首席科學顧問華森表示:「我們能夠餵飽90億人的世界嗎?我會說答案是『可以的』。」他是跨政府氣候變遷研究小組的前任主席。"Can we feed a world of 9 billion? I would say the answer is yes," said Robert Watson, chief scientific adviser to Britain's Department of Environment and Rural Affairs and a former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.但他表示,要達到這個結果,必須對非永續但根深柢固的政策和行動進行根本改變,包括攝取過多肉類,以及花費數兆在農業和燃料補貼。But doing so will require fundamental changes to unsustainable but well-entrenched policies and practices, from eating so much meat to spending trillions on agriculture and fuel subsidies, he said.同時,許多對抗饑餓的運動人士表示,解答在於用更聰明的替代方式來進行糧食的種植、灌溉、收成、儲藏、運輸、販賣、擁有及分享。In the meantime, many hunger fighters say the answer lies in clever alterations to the way food is planted, watered, harvested, stored, transported, sold, owned and shared.全球各地已開始進行許多這類試驗,實驗場所包括在農場和田野,在實驗室及政府辦公室,還有在工廠和市場上。甚至有些人談論到21世紀糧食革命的開展。Many of those changes are already being tested in the world's farms and fields, in laboratories and government offices, in factories and markets. Some are even speaking of the beginnings of a 21st century food revolution.掌握機會 提高生產量與上世紀的農業「綠色革命」不同,農業革命以高產量的農作品種,以及更多的灌溉來大幅提振全世界的糧食生產。但綠色革命必須仰賴無數的「綠色子彈」才能解決飢餓問題。Unlike the last century's agricultural "Green Revolution", which dramatically boosted world food production with new high-yielding crop varieties and more irrigation (2), this revolution must rely on myriad "green bullets" to tackle hunger.這些綠色子彈包括:勸說居住於非洲乾旱區的農夫,將種植作物由需要大量用水的稻米,轉換成高梁和小米等旱作;幫助農人建造防害蟲穀倉,讓食物能夠儲存更久,或是等高價較高時賣出。They range from persuading farmers in Africa's drought zones to switch from water-hungry rice to hardier crops like sorghum or millet, to helping them build pest-proof grain silos that allow food to be stored longer or sold when prices are higher.預估到2050年全球有7成人口居住都市地區,主要關注的議題包括:找出方法來幫助城市居民在小型都會空地或是屋頂花園種植糧食,或集結起來用較低廉的價格購買糧食。With 70 percent of the world's people expected to live in cities by 2050, finding ways to help city dwellers grow food in small urban plots or roof gardens, or group together to buy food at cheaper prices, is a major focus.舉例來說,在加州的東帕羅奧爾圖,特別容易受到高昂糧價影響的年長貧民區居民,生平第一次開始學習種植技巧,為自己及附近的市場生產食物。In California's East Palo Alto, for instance, older inner-city residents - who are particularly vulnerable to high food prices - are learning growing techniques for the first time and producing food for themselves and a neighbourhood market.在非洲和亞洲,有至少40%的糧食由婦女耕種。專家表示,需要改善女性的土地權利,讓她們更容易取得資訊。手機科技的普及,讓資訊的傳播更為便利。Women - who grow at least 40 percent of food in Africa and Asia - will need improved land rights and better access to information, something being made much easier by the spread of mobile phone technology, experts say.印度安德拉邦的農村婦女,目前仰賴網路和手機的預先旱災警報系統,將作物改變為更加耐旱的種類;此舉保存了收成,也幫助遏止乾旱時通常會發生的都市移民潮。Rural women in India's Andhra Pradesh state now use advance drought warnings, relayed by Internet and mobile phone, to switch to more drought-tolerant crops -- a move that has saved harvests and helped stem the usual wave of migration to cities in drought times.改用更省水的灌溉系統,或是在肥沃樹林間種植作物等農業技術改變,將會是關鍵。目前這類改變已發生於非洲。Changing farming practices by adopting more water-conserving drip irrigation or planting crops amid fertilizing trees, as is now happening throughout Africa, will also be key.減少浪費 避免過度消費全球供應的糧食中,至少有30%是遭到蟲蝕、在運送到市場途中損壞,或直接從餐盤或超市丟掉。減少這些食物浪費也是重點。So will cutting the at least 30 percent of the world's food supply eaten by pests (3), spoiled on the way to market or thrown away unused from plates and supermarkets.部分對抗饑餓運動的人士指出,讓超市停止買一送一的行銷活動,可能是起點,因為買一送一會鼓勵人們過度消費。改善東南亞和非洲等地區的道路也是方法之一,因為運輸延遲表示糧食產品經常在運輸到市場的途中就腐爛了。Simply getting supermarkets to stop offering two-for-one specials - which can encourage people to overbuy - would be a start, some anti-hunger activists say, as would improving roads in regions like South Asia and Africa where transport delays mean produce often rots on the way to market.雖然氣候變暖和大氣層內二氧化碳增加,可能會增進部分地區的植物生長速度和糧食成長,也讓部分北方地區開始發展農業,但有更多地區預估將因旱災、水災、暴風、海平面上升和氣溫升高等災害而導致作物產量銳減,造成更嚴重傷害。While warmer weather and growing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could spur plant growth and food production in some regions -- and open a few northern reaches of the world to farming -- many more regions are expected to see worsening losses from droughts, floods, storms, rising sea levels and higher temperatures that can cause crop yields (4) to drop.節水灌溉 防水資源匱乏其他的創新者則將重心放在水資源日益稀少所造成的影響。美國太平洋發展環境安全研究所主持人暨首要水資源專家葛利克表示:「人類全球糧食生產中,有極大量仰賴無法永續使用的地下水資源。」Other innovators are focusing on the effects of growing water scarcity. "A substantial amount of our food production worldwide comes from non-renewable groundwater (5) sources, and in the long run that is not sustainable," said Peter Gleick, a leading water expert and head of the U.S.-based Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security.部分仰賴冰川的河水變得不規律,或是幾年之後就會枯水;部分區域處於暴雨後旋即進入旱災的景況。這些社區都開始學習如何尋找並儲存水源,以確保全年供水無虞。他們也發展了節水灌溉設施,確保目前所擁有的水資源不致枯竭。In villages where glacier-fed streams are set to become more irregular or disappear in the years ahead, or where flooding from heavy rain is quickly followed by drought, communities are learning to harvest and store water to ensure supplies throughout the year. They are also developing water-conserving irrigation methods to make what they have available last.除了實作面的解決辦法,還需要佐以重大的政策改變,如禁止將穀物轉為生質能源使用,或限制炒作糧食價格。In addition to on-the-ground solutions, those changes will need to include major policy shifts -- including a ban on turning grain into biofuel or limits on food speculation.「糧食危機和氣候變遷已對人類的生活和全球經濟成長造成影響,這些問題正要開始加速惡化。」英國首席科學顧問貝丁頓在一份永續農業與氣候變遷委員會3月份的報告中指出。"Food insecurity and climate change are already inhibiting human well-being and economic growth throughout the world, and these problems are poised to accelerate," said John Beddington, Britain's chief science adviser, in a March report by the International Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change.「如果我們想要保存這個星球在未來生產足夠糧食的能力,就需要採取關鍵性行動改變政策。」"Decisive policy action is required if we are to preserve the planet's capacity to produce adequate food in the future."(路透Reuters)關鍵字詞1. marginalised (a.) 被邊緣化的2. yield (n.) 產量3. pest (n.) 害蟲4. irrigation (n.) 灌溉5. groundwater (n.) 地下水